Ronan Wordsworth
As Sudan’s civil war enters its 15th month, peace seems as distant as ever. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) both lack international legitimacy and have been credibly accused of committing atrocities. Millions of Sudanese civilians have fled north into Egypt or west into Chad, neither of which is well-equipped to support so many refugees. Meanwhile, what started as a war for national control has grown into a proxy conflict among Middle Eastern and Eurasian powers.
Dreaming of a naval base on Sudan’s Red Sea coast, Iran and Russia are supplying advanced drones, missiles and other weapons to the SAF, which controls the coastline and much of the Nile River basin. The SAF’s Islamist fundamentalism appeals to Tehran, while Moscow has been working to revive a seven-year-old agreement it reached with Sudan’s former president for a permanent naval and logistics base, even at the risk of its multibillion-dollar gold mining operation. On the other side, the RSF’s greatest support comes from the United Arab Emirates, a staunch opponent of the spread of Iranian influence via violent Islamic extremist groups. Egypt and Saudi Arabia are determined to block Iran from securing a base on the Red Sea from which it could further threaten their territory and economic interests. Similar fears are prevalent in Europe and the United States, which worry at least as much about the prospect of a Russian base on the Red Sea, but they have been unable to develop a unified strategy.
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