Dr. Taras Kuzio
The failure of the Ukrainian 2023 offensive was in large part due to long delays in Western military assistance and the training of new Ukrainian brigades (Espreso, December 27, 2023). This gave Russia about nine months, from October 2022 to June 2023, to build fortifications along three “Surovikin lines,” including deep trenches, covered fighting positions, tank obstacles, and mines with a density of approximately five per square meter (Slovo i Dilo, September 2, 2023; BBC Ukrainian, September 27, 2023).
In particular, the delay in military supplies was caused by a lack of political will in the United States and Germany out of fear of nuclear escalation with Russia (Ukrinform, June 1; 24 Kanal, June 7). The rapid collapse and rout of Russian forces in the Kharkiv direction sparked fears in the Kremlin a Ukrainian breakthrough might south toward the Azov Sea, potentially leading to the collapse of Russia’s occupation in southeast Ukraine (Armiya Inform, September 6, 2023). In those conditions, Moscow’s nuclear threats became the most intense, further enflaming fears of escalation in the West (Holos Ameryky, September 23, 2022).
These developments over the past two years of war shed insight on what Ukraine can expect for the future. The increased interest from the West to provide aid to Ukraine and the continuing failures of the Russian army may open an opportunity for Ukraine to take the initiative in the war.
No comments:
Post a Comment