Michelle Grisé
This piece is part of a commentary series on the upcoming NATO summit in Washington in which RAND researchers explore important strategic questions for the alliance as NATO confronts a historic moment, navigating both promise and peril.
As the fighting in Ukraine grinds on, Western policymakers and military officials are thinking ahead to the next war. Given how fast Russia is reconstituting its military, they are asking, when might it be able militarily to launch another large-scale offensive operation?
German Chief of Defense Carsten Breuer told reporters in April that a Russian attack on NATO soil could be possible within five to eight years. Norwegian Chief of Defense Eirik Kristoffersen offered a more alarming assessment this month, suggesting that NATO had only two or three years to prepare for a Russian attack on the alliance. Recent statements by U.S. officials see little slack at all in Russia's buildup. Talking about the state of the Ukraine war in April, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown, Jr. told reporters that Russia had “aggressively reconstituted its military force.”
Understanding the speed of reconstitution is vitally important. But the speed doesn't tell the whole story. The nature of Russia's military reconstitution matters, too.Share on Twitter
Understanding the speed of reconstitution is vitally important. It informs prioritization of Ukrainian and Western military investments and lends urgency to planning efforts. But the speed doesn't tell the whole story. The nature of Russia's military reconstitution matters, too. Understanding both will be critical in ensuring that the alliance is not only ready in time, but also ready to contend with the right threat.
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