Valery Dzutsati
As Russian casualties in Moscow’s war against Ukraine reach staggering heights, the Kremlin and wider Russian society are increasingly feeling the pain of war (see EDM, July 10). The Ukrainian government estimates Russian losses, including the wounded, at nearly 550,000 individuals since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 (Minfin, July 5). As the number of casualties mount and the Kremlin continues to recruit more Russians to throw into the “meat grinder” in Ukraine, the Russian population may become fed up with the Kremlin’s war and begin to fight back, exacerbating what is already a tense domestic environment (see EDM, November 27, December 7, 11, 2023, January 23, February 8, April 16, 18).
Independent Russian news outlets Mediazona and Meduza, in collaboration with the Russian service of BBC News, recently investigated Russian losses in greater detail using various methodologies (Mediazona, July 5). Researchers examined the difference between the normal and excessive number of new cases in the publicly available National Register of Inheritance to estimate Russian losses. According to the authors, as of the beginning of this summer, approximately 120,000 people in the Russian military have died since the start of the war. Moreover, the rate of losses appears to be rising and currently amounts to a daily average of about 200–250. In examining social media posts, media publications, and government announcements, the researchers established the names of nearly 57,000 individuals who have died in Ukraine. The type of troops, recruitment method, age, date of demise, and regional affiliations are also available (Meduza, July 5). This data is incomplete but still provides valuable insights. (For analysis on Russian combat losses in Ukraine, deduced from Rosstat’s ‘Unassigned Deaths’ category, see EDM, October 19, 2023.)
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