Garrett I. Campbell
For all the media hype they generated, Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling threats to provide weapons to target Western countries and his naval flotilla’s visit to Cuba failed to alter Western willingness to provide aid to Ukraine. Russian Navy visits of this type occur every few years, and this one seems par for the course.
The flotilla, which included a frigate, two support ships, and a guided missile submarine, was never going to stimulate another Cuban Missile Crisis on its own. When put into the larger context of Russian political and military activities, the flotilla’s arrival in Cuba was seemingly the centerpiece of Putin’s response to Western nations’ approval for Ukraine to use Western weapons to strike Russia. It also occurred amid a spate of activities meant to signal Putin’s ability and willingness to escalate further. These included Russian air force violations of Swedish airspace, an unscheduled tactical nuclear weapons exercise, and Putin’s presentation of a peace ultimatum in an attempt to undermine the Swiss-sponsored Summit on Peace in Ukraine.
Putin acted true to form and played the escalation card as is his modus operandi. While none of these moved the needle on Western support for Ukraine, Cuba’s willingness to play a role in Putin’s theater of escalation matters. The West needs to better understand how Cuba fits within Russian strategic thinking and why it will likely figure prominently in any future crisis with the West.
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