Kamran Bokhari
Peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia are an opportunity for the United States to expand its influence in the South Caucasus. A U.S.-brokered peace agreement would give Washington another foothold in Russia’s traditional sphere of influence between the Black and Caspian seas. But this won’t happen if Washington doesn’t improve relations with Azerbaijan and thus balance its ties with Armenia.
On July 1, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia is achievable, and it seems as though the State Department is putting in the work to make it happen. He has spoken with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev several times over the past few months, most recently on June 20, and on June 28, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O’Brien told reporters in Baku that Azerbaijan and Armenia had been invited to the foreign minister-level NATO meeting, which will be held July 9-11. Meanwhile, Armenian Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan said in a statement July 1 that his country had made progress in negotiations with Azerbaijan on the delimitation of their border and that they will soon finish a relevant common document.
Talks between the two have indeed gained momentum, especially since a meeting of their foreign ministers in Kazakhstan’s capital, Astana, in early May. Despite facing considerable opposition at home, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan says his country is prepared to sign an accord by November. Yerevan has already handed back control of four key villages to Baku, effectively redrawing eight miles of border.
Armenia’s interest in concluding a peace agreement stems from its defeat in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war with Azerbaijan, whose outcome dramatically reversed the balance of power in the South Caucasus. What little control Armenia retained in the disputed region was taken in September 2023 by Azerbaijan as part of a cease-fire agreement in November 2020. There are a variety of reasons that Armenia lost, including Turkish support for Azerbaijan, but the government in Yerevan came away from the conflict feeling betrayed by its erstwhile ally Russia, which it believed failed to deliver on much-needed military support. Bilateral relations deteriorated, and in May Russia withdrew nearly all its forces from Armenia save small contingents on its borders with Turkey and Iran. Last month, Armenia announced a withdrawal from the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization.
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