Wooseon Choi
Drivers
Increasing threats and leadership are the two main factors that have propelled trilateral cooperation among Korea, the United States, and Japan in recent years.
The China threat has increased as the balance of power has changed and as China’s behaviors have become more assertive. U.S. leaders now see China as a near-peer competitor and have entered an earnest power competition with it. Most states in Asia, including Korea, perceive an increasing potential threat from China.
Many Asian countries thus want to prepare for the growing potential threat of China by gradually strengthening their cooperation with the United States and forming minilateral groups. Nonetheless, most of these states do not yet perceive an imminent and truly serious military threat from China. Even U.S. leaders do not believe that a conflict with China is imminent, and thus tend to see the competition with China from a long-term perspective.
The North Korean threat is also growing as North Korea makes real progress in nuclear armament. This threat has increased the necessity of trilateral cooperation, especially from the Korean perspective. However, the North Korean threat has been present for many years, and North Korea does not pose a threat to the extent that it makes Korea, the United States, and Japan feel the imperative to cooperate.
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