Eugene Rumer
At this week’s celebration of NATO’s seventy-fifth anniversary, there will be plenty of self-congratulatory speeches about the strongest, most enduring, and most successful alliance in history and promises to keep it that way well into the future. Such optimism looks increasingly detached from the reality facing the allies as they struggle to fulfill their most important missions since the Cold War—to support Ukraine and to help it defeat Russia.
Two and a half years into what has become a war of attrition, the outlook for Ukraine is grim. Last year’s optimistic forecasts about putting Russian forces in an untenable situation during the Ukrainian counteroffensive and forcing Putin to negotiate in earnest have not materialized. Despite intense fighting and massive losses by both sides, the line of contact remains today essentially where it was at the end of 2022. Ukraine’s armed forces have dug in and transitioned to a long-term defensive strategy. Such a strategy represents a fundamental change from President Volodymyr Zelensky’s long-standing goal of liberating all Russian-occupied territory. An open-ended stalemate is not a convincing theory of victory.
In contrast, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s theory of victory is clear. Since his initial blitzkrieg plan collapsed, the Russian leader has bet on winning at attrition warfare against Ukraine. The Russian army is making incremental gains on the battlefield, but the main Russian action is against Ukrainian cities and towns, infrastructure, and the spirit of the people of Ukraine. Relentless Russian bombardment has resulted in the destruction of well over half of Ukraine’s power generation capacity. Western allies and partners are scrambling to provide Ukraine with as much air defense capability as they can get their hands on, but Russia appears to have no trouble getting more bombs and missiles to sustain its campaign. And the damage to Ukrainian infrastructure is already done and is unlikely to be repaired in the foreseeable future. Putin’s bet is brutally transparent and simple—in a war of attrition, the side that has more of everything wins. And Russia has more of everything, including time. Putin is under no pressure to end this war.
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