LAWRENCE FREEDMAN
Since the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War ‘realists’ have warned that Ukrainians are foolish to resist Russian aggression and should instead agree a compromise peace that might still leave them with the bulk of their country at the cost of conceding a chunk to Russia. How much independence the rump Ukraine could then enjoy would depend on what had also been agreed on its future security arrangements. These same realists would expect Ukraine to accept that it could never join NATO.
A recent example of such ‘realism’ can be found In a letter in the Financial Times signed by individuals who have long taken this position, including former UK and US Ambassadors to Moscow. They do not expect concessions from Russia other than a possible promise that it would not try to take even more territory. They urge that the US should start talks with Moscow ‘on a new security pact which would safeguard the legitimate security interests of both Ukraine and Russia’ without explaining how that would work.
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