Antoine Levesques
On 4 June, Narendra Modi was re-elected as prime minister of India for a third consecutive term – unprecedented in 62 years. By reappointing his foreign minister and national security advisor, Modi has signalled his desire for continuity in India’s statecraft.
However, among India’s key bilateral ties, those with China will merit significant attention and possibly adaptation. As the relationship between Asia’s largest nuclear-armed militaries and economies by 2025 appears increasingly distant and tense, where is it headed?
Mutually exclusive prosperity and security
India–China ties are troubled by an unsettled border, an unequal trade relationship, China’s strategic ties to Pakistan, and a broadening political-strategic disagreement over each other’s perceived rightful place in Asia and beyond. The relationship has suffered from a lack of strategic trust since a June 2020 border clash, which unmade much of the letter and spirit of the border-management regime that had been patiently negotiated, designed and agreed to over a generation. The war in Ukraine has brought China closer to Russia, India’s historic defence partner.
The result is a complex relationship which tends towards tension over cooperation. This has not always been the case. During the course of the 1990s and until 2013, India and China agreed to set aside their differences on the border and focus on their economic development, each involving the other on secondary issues such as terrorism or Afghanistan.
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