Jason Furman
The most economically important part of the presidential debate was a leitmotif—and at times, a heavy motif—throughout the evening: immigration. While Donald Trump made many false remarks throughout the debate, he spoke a grain of truth when he said of his opponent that “the only jobs he created are for illegal immigrants and bounce-back jobs that bounced back from the Covid.” The employment level for native-born workers is indeed below its pre-pandemic level, while foreign-born workers have accounted for all employment gains. But contrary to Mr. Trump’s contention, that’s a strong argument for, rather than against, immigration.
The U.S. population is aging, and millions of baby boomers retire each year. We can expect that absent immigration, we would have a decreasing working-age population and shrinking employment for decades to come—especially considering the low fertility rate. This is already happening in Japan and will soon happen in many European countries.
Meantime, millions of jobs have been added for foreign-born workers since 2019. The majority of these immigrants were in the U.S. prior to Covid, but another roughly 10 million have arrived since then, according to the Congressional Budget Office. These newly arrived immigrants are the main reason the U.S. economy has defied pessimistic forecasts, with 200,000 jobs added a month, real growth in gross domestic product at 3% in the past year, and an inflation rate that has fallen dramatically in the past few years. The biggest factor behind this strong economic performance is immigration.
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