Tom Rogan
Continuing to fight Hamas in Gaza, Israel is preparing for a separate war with the Lebanese Hezbollah. The Lebanon-based terrorist group and political entity has been engaged in a low-level conflict with Israel since the day following Hamas’s Oct. 7 atrocities in Israel. Hezbollah’s rocket and other weapons fire has forced tens of thousands of Israelis to evacuate their homes in northern Israel.
Yet far greater escalation may soon follow. Having imposed significant damage on Hamas military capabilities, Israeli leaders believe they have earned the breathing room to refocus their gun sights on Hezbollah. While the Biden administration is attempting to mediate a peaceful resolution, the status quo is plainly unsustainable. Secretary of State Antony Blinken identified the problem on Monday, noting that Israel’s “people don’t feel safe to go to their homes. Absent doing something about the insecurity, people won’t have the confidence to return.”
What might that something look like?
One of two things: Either Hezbollah suspends its attacks on northern Israel or Israel will launch a ground offensive into southern Lebanon and attack Hezbollah from the air across Lebanon. The intent of the offensive would be to dismantle Hezbollah’s firing capacity against northern Israel and establish a buffer zone sanitized of Hezbollah forces. That buffer zone would hopefully then allow Israelis in the country’s north to return to their homes in relative security. The challenge for Israel is that Hezbollah retains a far more capable military force in terms of rockets, missiles, and other weapons than Hamas did on Oct. 8. A war between these two parties would be bloody and difficult for Hezbollah in particular but also for Israel.
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