Mark Leonard
Keir Starmer is reeling from England’s defeat in European football, but he will hope to be more successful in European politics. This week more than 45 leaders will gather under his leadership in Blenheim Palace for the fourth meeting of the European Political Community (EPC). The EPC summit is the brainchild of the French president, Emmanuel Macron, who called for the format to demonstrate European unity after Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Starmer will want to use the moment to show that Britain is back. But in the eyes of many participants it is the absence of the United States, rather than the presence of the United Kingdom, that will be most resonant. The last time many of these same leaders gathered was in Washington, DC to celebrate NATO’s 75th anniversary. But when they convene in Oxfordshire their biggest protector will not be with them. And many fear this will become the new normal.
Opinion polls see Donald Trump with a growing lead ahead of November’s election. He has promised to enforce a peace deal on Ukraine and to downgrade American participation in European security. His surrogates are promoting a vision of “dormant NATO” (code for a NATO with fewer American troops, a European general as supreme allied commander, and an American withdrawal from the alliance’s military command). What’s more, even if Joe Biden is re-elected, his officials are very focused on “responsibility sharing”, by which they mean shifting responsibility for European security into European hands.
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