George Friedman
Devoted readers will recall what I wrote in my most recent book, “The Storm Before the Calm,” and in subsequent articles here on GPF: that the United States operates on two cycles, one a 50-year socio-economic cycle, the other an 80-year institutional cycle. For the first time in history, both are coming full circle at the same time.
To recap, the first institutional cycle, which established a federal government, began with the American Revolution and concluded with the Civil War, ending in 1865. The second institutional cycle, which established the federal government’s authority over the states, ran from the Civil War to World War II. We are now nearing the end of the third institutional cycle, which has expanded the federal government’s authority over the economy and society. All cycles are built to render the previous one obsolete.
In WWII, U.S. power triumphed because of the knowledge of experts – including those who quickly and effectively restructured the military – whose expertise was subsequently regarded as the foundation of government and all other corporate entities. The government saw itself as an instrument for shaping and regulating policies ranging from medicine to commercial fishing. Its success in WWII was all the validation it needed.
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