Geopolitical Tensions Complicate Proposed Kazakhstan–Turkmenistan–Afghanistan Transit Corridor

Syed Fazl-e-Haider

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Astana has expedited efforts to establish a transport corridor through Afghanistan involving Turkmenistan. In May, Kazakhstan’s Trade Ministry announced plans to establish road and rail networks through Afghanistan to facilitate trade with South Asia and the Persian Gulf (Daryo, May 5, 6). Earlier, on April 27, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan had agreed at a high-level meeting in Kabul on the construction of transit infrastructure in Afghanistan to open a new corridor connecting Central Asia with South and West Asia. The participants in the trilateral meeting included Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin, Turkmenistan’s Transport and Communications Agency Director General Mammetkhan Chakyev, and Afghan Minister of Commerce and Industry Nooruddin Azizi (Afghanistan Times, April 29). Azizi expressed hope that the new corridor will transform war-torn Afghanistan into a logistics hub for regional exports. While the project aims to capitalize on regional transit upheavals largely brought on by Russia’s war against Ukraine, geopolitical rivalries and security concerns, especially in Afghanistan, may complicate these goals’ realization.

Under the plan, a logistics center would be built at Herat in western Afghanistan to facilitate regional exports. Russian oil sent to South Asian countries, including Pakistan and India, will presumably flow through the transport corridor, which will provide better links with existing infrastructure, as no new pipelines were mentioned during the trilateral meeting. During the meeting, Zhumangarin emphasized the importance of “recalculating and reorienting traffic flows” to support infrastructure development. The corridor would allow for the passage of millions of tons of Russian oil, which is expected to be purchased in the coming years by South Asian countries (Kursiv Media, May 3). Astana, Ashgabat, and Kabul also agreed to form a working group to move forward and implement the agreed-upon plans (News on Projects, May 2).