Europe Alone Nine thinkers on the continent’s future without America’s embrace.

Mark Leonard, Constanze Stelzenmüller, Nathalie Tocci, Carl Bildt, Robin Niblett, Radoslaw Sikorski, Guntram Wolff, Bilahari Kausikan, Ivan Krastev, and Stefan Theil

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No bloc of countries has, for the past 75 years, been as umbilically tied to the United States as Europe. First, its western half and, since the end of the Cold War, much of its eastern half have prospered under the world’s most extensive bonds in trade, finance, and investment. Europe could also depend on the U.S. military’s iron commitment—enshrined in the 75-year-old NATO alliance—to come to its defense. Together with a few other nations, the United States and Europe defined many of the institutions that comprise what we call the Western-led order. The U.S.-European alliance has arguably been the bedrock of the global system as we know it today.

But the era in which Europe could count on the United States may be nearing its end. No matter who wins the U.S. presidential election in November, Washington’s attention is shifting to Beijing and the Indo-Pacific. Should Donald Trump return to the White House, it’s conceivable that the United States could question its commitment to NATO—or even pull out of the alliance altogether, a scenario that will hang over the bloc’s 75th anniversary summit in Washington in July.

Europe could soon face its threats alone. Moscow has unleashed the first major land war in Europe since World War II with the goal of restoring its Cold War empire, which included countries that are now members of the European Union. If the war in the Middle East turns into a greater conflagration, it could send new waves of migrants into the EU.