Koh Swee Lean Collin
On Jun 17, the world came dangerously close to an outright armed conflict in the South China Sea.
The clash between China and the Philippines in the disputed Second Thomas Shoal was the most serious ever documented. Things could have easily escalated beyond a Filipino sailor’s severed thumb - but for a measure of restraint and a whole lot of luck.
One might have seen this coming after more than a year of high tensions between the two countries.
Besides the usual disruptions of Philippine rotation and resupply missions to the garrison stationed on the beached Sierra Madre warship, there were signs of the noose tightening. In the fortnight leading up to the latest fracas, China accused Filipino troops of pointing firearms at the coast guard and destroying Chinese fishing nets in the shoal’s vicinity.
In video footage of the Jun 17 episode released by the Philippine military, the Chinese coast guard can be seen right alongside the Sierra Madre - just short of boarding the outpost. In a fait accompli, they might have pushed the Filipinos off the rusting hulk to resolve the stalemate once and for all, potentially igniting a wider conflict that could involve the United States.
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