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29 July 2024

China’s third plenum – watch what they do, not what they say

David Lubin

When trying to understand China’s economy, it’s worth remembering that the gulf between what Chinese policymakers say and what they do can be vast. Let’s call that a ‘Type 1 problem’. But sometimes they just don’t say very much at all, and this one might call a ‘Type 2 problem’.

Last week’s third plenum, a five-yearly top-level meeting which on occasion has delivered important signals of Beijing’s grand economic strategy, served up a Type 2 problem. Unless you attribute a great deal of significance to Beijing’s ‘Five-Sphere Integrated Plan’ or the ‘Four-Pronged Comprehensive Strategy’, the plenum’s communique was long on slogans and short on substance.

A lack of clarity

To be fair, many of these slogans do genuinely reflect deep thinking about policy. When Beijing officials talk about ‘the new development philosophy’, ‘Chinese modernization’, ‘high quality development’, ‘new quality productive forces’, or a ‘high-standards socialist market economy’, these are references to real objectives.

It’s just that their constant repetition adds little to anyone’s understanding of how policy is being shaped. Not even the full set of decisions that were adopted, published yesterday and whose English translation exceeds 17,000 words, offers many hints.

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