Howard Wang, Gregory Graff, Alexis Dale-Huang
Introduction
Chinese leaders see themselves in competition with the United States to build military power in space. The ongoing development of capabilities and doctrine for space operations in both countries might reveal a growing risk of unintended military escalation in space. Central to this risk is each country’s threat perception of the other, or how it assesses the other’s intentions and its capabilities to act on those intentions. Additionally, guidance from each country’s defense enterprise on how to respond to crises and control escalation will shape escalation dynamics in the event of a crisis or conflict. In other words, the risk of unintended military escalation in space between the United States and China turns on whether each country views the other as a threat in space and how it will respond to that threat.
This report surveys open-source literature across the Chinese defense enterprise to present a composite image of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) perspectives and key factors for U.S.-China crisis stability in space.1 It draws on authoritative materials, including leader speeches reported in official media, defense white papers, and official professional military education (PME), which collectively reflect political leader guidance or PLA strategy and doctrine. Although PLA PME through 2020 is publicly available, the PLA’s most authoritative materials on space are more than a decade old.
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