Hal Brands
From Ukraine to Gaza to the South China Sea, the world is littered with crises. International cooperation is paralyzed by diplomatic rivalry; techno-optimism has given way to a pervasive techno-anxiety . The sole superpower is limping toward an election with fateful consequences, as its rivals feverishly arm themselves for wars present and, perhaps, future. Each of these challenges, in turn, is symptomatic of a deeper historic shift underway.
“The current international environment is in turmoil, because its essential elements are all in flux simultaneously.” Henry Kissinger wrote that in 1968, as a whirlwind of change — decolonization, domestic protest, a changing balance of power — was roiling the arrangements that had emerged after World War II. But Kissinger’s assessment is also a good starting point for understanding a disordered globe today.
For a generation after the Cold War, the world was structured by a set of verities : the triumph of democracy over autocracy, the virtues of globalization and innovation, the prospects for great-power peace, and the stabilizing role of American power. Those verities underpinned a world that was remarkably favorable for the US and its allies. They were also historically propitious for global finance and trade. The reason today’s world seems so chaotic is that those old verities are crumbling, as the contours of a new era take shape.
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