Zachary Kallenborn and Marcel Plichta
Unmanned systems will help save Taiwan.1 At least, that is what some recent war games suggest. A 2020 RAND study conducted and analyzed a series of U.S.-China war games and simulations and found that a preponderance of interconnected and attritable unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) would prove a decisive part of a near-peer conflict against China.2 Similarly, a Center for a New American Security war game held in August 2022 recommended that the United States should invest in unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) and that Taiwan should invest in UAVs to give it an edge.3 Beyond hypotheticals, conflicts in Ukraine, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Yemen show that drones are quickly becoming a central area for development and innovation in warfare at all levels of technological sophistication.
Drone defenses are moving fast, too. The Department of Defense (DOD) planned to spend over $700 million on counter UAVs (c-UAVs) in fiscal year 2023 alone, almost all going to research and development.4 The global c-UAV market is forecast to grow to about $5 billion in 2029.5 C-UAV and drone defense may minimize the effects of drones in high-intensity conflict; however, if counters to drone defenses are developed that mitigate their ability to threaten, drones could retain their utility. The evolving interaction among drones, drone defenses, and counters to drone defenses will be critical in determining the net effect of drones on global security.
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