Paul Goble
Two developments over the past couple of weeks reflect the reordering of geopolitics in the South Caucasus since Azerbaijan expelled Armenian forces from its territory. Both events are likely to intensify that trend, with consequences not only for the countries in the region but also for the international order.
At the Astana meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on July 4, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping signed a declaration of strategic partnership that calls for their two countries to work more closely economically, militarily, and strategically (TASS, July 3).
Additionally, on July 15, after more than a year of talks and on the heels of the election of the new Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformer and ethnic Azerbaijani, Iran allowed Azerbaijan to reopen its embassy in Tehran, a facility that had been shuttered since a terrorist attack in January 2023 (Vestikavkaza.ru, July 15). In bolstering relations with China and Iran, Baku is shifting the power balance in the South Caucasus, weakening the West’s position and potentially offering Moscow an opening to reassert its influence.
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