Udi Dekel
Using a simulation involving many actors, INSS examined a scenario in which Israel, with the goal of preventing Hamas from rebuilding and ensuring that the Gaza Strip is not engulfed in total chaos, is forced to recapture the territory and impose martial law. This analysis showed that the costs of such an occupation would be extremely high for Israel. In addition, while Israel would be required to formulate a strategy for ending the war in Gaza, the war of attrition being waged against Israel by Iran’s proxies would continue and possibly even intensify. Above all, the most significant potential damage would be the elimination of any possibility of a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, as well as a regional security coalition led by the United States, including the moderate Arab states and Israel.
INSS conducted a simulation to examine the implications of Israel’s reoccupation of the Gaza Strip and whether it would have any significant impact on altering the negative developments in the war arena.
The Scenario
- Following the failed attempt to reach a deal with Hamas for the release of the hostages and the introduction of a ceasefire, Israel completes its mission to take control of the Rafah district and deploys along the Philadelphi Corridor to block off Hamas’s smuggling routes and prevent it from rearming.
- Israel controls all the border crossings into Gaza. Given the situation that has been created, the international community declares that Israel has full control over the Gaza Strip and responsibility for it as well as for the well-being of the Palestinian population there.
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