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14 July 2024

A Proxy War of Diminishing Geostrategic Returns

Thomas Cavanna

As Western leaders gather in Washington, D.C. for the 75th anniversary of the NATO alliance on July 9-11, 2024, the pressures for deeper American involvement in Ukraine’s War against Russia have continued to build up. The Biden administration, which immediately signed the $61 billion aid package approved by the US Congress in April 2024 and recently authorized Kyiv’s use of American weapons for limited retaliatory strikes within Russia’s territory, is expected to pledge additional assistance to Ukraine, enhance NATO’s indirect involvement in the war, and provide “a strong bridge” to the country’s membership in the alliance.

That trend is understandable. Russia has proved resilient and made new territorial gains with Iran, North Korea, and (above all) China’s help. It outmatches Ukraine in demographic and industrial-military terms. Moreover, the West must grapple with the rise of the Far Right in the EU, President Biden’s faltering re-election prospects, and the “radical reorientation” that former President Trump envisions for NATO should he return to power.

Yet the Biden administration’s buildup in Ukraine ignores how closely the US has tightened its encirclement of Russia, the diminishing returns of escalating without a clear endgame, and the unsustainability of its current course of action from a domestic political standpoint.

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