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5 July 2024

2031, The Middle Kingdom Strikes Back

Gary Anderson

As Chinese Admiral Peng viewed the results of the thermobaric strike on Scarborough Shoal, His Aide Lieutenant Liu asked, "Sir how many of their marines survived the bombing?"

"Six" answered the admiral, "but one died on the way to the hospital ship".

"What were they trying to achieve? asked Liu.

"That is a good question, Liu" the admiral answered. "Back in 2019, their marine corps commandant developed a concept that he called expeditionary advance base operations (EABO), and planned to put small groups of troops called Stand-In Forces on tiny islets in the first island chain armed with anti-ship missiles to deter or block our Navy from breaking out of the South China Sea."

"But we never intended to do that," said Liu incredulously.

The admiral shook his head. "That is what makes it so bizarre. The most likely war scenario was us invading Taiwan. Their concept would not contribute to that fight in any substantial way. Going on Napoleon's advice to let an enemy alone if he is doing something stupid, we ignored the whole concept except to tell the countries in the region not to participate by letting their disputed islets and shoals be used. Only the Philippines signed on to the concept. That lowered the American choice of options for bases. 

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