India-Iran Makeover Dovetails Into Iran’s Ties With Russia – OpEd

M.K. Bhadrakumar

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There is enormous appreciation among Iranian intellectuals, diplomats and politicians regarding Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s stellar support for their country’s membership of the BRICS grouping. Modi played a key role to navigate Iran’s membership purposively at the BRICS Summit in Johannesburg last August.

The Russian President Vladimir Putin couldn’t be present at Johannesburg. But Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended the summit in person, rubbishing the malicious rumours and canards to the contrary orchestrated by the western media. The Anglo-Saxon game plan was to somehow get Iran’s membership question deferred to an indefinite future.

The defining moment was a phone call from the Iranian President late Ibrahim Raisi to Modi in the week before the summit meeting. However, the ground for the last-minute flurry of diplomatic activity was prepared in the preceding weeks by the National Security Advisor Ajit Doval when he attended the meeting of BRICS national security advisors in Johannesburg in late July, just weeks prior to the summit to review security and economic cooperation.

Doval held separate “working meetings” with his Russian and Iranian counterparts — Nikolai Patrushev and Ali-Akbar Ahmadian respectively. The NSAs discussed Iran’s BRICS membership issue as a core vector of the Johannesburg summit.

Outrage is not a policy: Coming to terms with Myanmar’s fragmented state

Morten B. Pedersen

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Introduction

The 2021 military coup in Myanmar ended a decade of liberal political and economic reforms but sparked a revolution that many hope will ultimately produce much needed, more radical change.

The Myanmar people are no strangers to military rule. However, the latest coup hit the country like an earthquake, shattering the hopes of millions of people who, after a decade of growing civil, political, and economic freedoms, had finally come to believe that tomorrow would be better than today. What the coup leaders had seemingly envisioned as a relatively simple “course correction” instead sparked a popular uprising, which soon evolved into an armed mass insurrection and civil war.

Three years after the coup, the new junta — the State Administration Council — is fighting a battle for survival against scores of new people’s militias and more established ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) demanding an end to the military’s role in politics and the establishment of a “genuine federal democracy”. Fresh elections originally scheduled for August 2023 have been repeatedly postponed, seemingly squashing any hope the coup-makers had of sneaking a new iteration of more tightly controlled “disciplined democracy” in through the backdoor.

WHISPERING ADVICE, ROARING PRAISES

Nis Grünberg, Grzegorz Stec

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INTRODUCTION

The latest Global Go To Think Tank Report (2021)1 identifies a worldwide total of 11,175 think tanks, suggesting that China-based organizations make up nearly 17 percent of them. The China Think Tank Directory 2022 (中国智库名录) lists 1,928 active ones.2 However, numbers are not everything. More important is to understand the regulatory conditions and degree of political integration that China’s think tanks operate under in order to assess their value as interlocutors and the context shaping their research.

Think tanks play an increasingly important role in official policy formulation. The output of official think tanks contributes to party-state deliberations on domestic and global policy issues.

Equally significant is the role of think thanks in communicating policy. The CCP leadership has an intense focus on controlling political debate at home, which is now matched by determination to build “discourse power” abroad, meaning China’s capacity to set the norms, topics and language of the international debates.

The think tanks also play an important role as a channel for unofficial exchanges with foreign partners. For instance, before the pandemic, a delegation of Chinese think tankers would visit Brussels for exchanges around every two months. After the pandemic, similar exchanges have resumed with visits from representatives of the Center for China and Globalization, the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, the China Institute of International Studies or the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

US-China Rivalry in Asia and Africa: Lessons from the Cold War

Gregg Brazinsky

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One of the hallmarks of the Cold War era was a competition between the United States and its democratic allies, on the one hand, and Communist powers, on the other, for the allegiance of countries in Africa and Asia. In an echo of the Cold War, a similar competition between the United States and China is playing out today. This report examines the US-China rivalry then and now and offers insights and lessons that can guide US policymakers as they navigate the contemporary competition.

China Mocks U.S. Presidential Debate: 'Very Entertaining'

Matthew Tostevin

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Chinese commentators mocked the first presidential debate between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump, pointing out the president's repeated verbal stumbles and the questions over the truthfulness of his rival.

Biden was widely seen as the loser of the debate. With his voice sounding hoarse and sometimes appearing to go off track in his remarks, his performance was criticized by both Republicans and Democrats in America at a time that he had been fighting questions over his age.

"Personal attacks, hazy memory, mocking each other... this debate was very entertaining for many Chinese people," wrote high profile media commentator and former state media editor Hu Xijin on X, where he has more than 560,000 followers despite it being banned for most people in China.

Why Does China Need Another Railway Through Central Asia? – Analysis

Alan Kosh

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Perhaps the cause isn’t economic gain.

China plans to build a new railway line from the western part of the country through Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, with access to Iran and Europe.

According to Kyrgyz President Sadyr Zhaparov, the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway will begin in October this year and will cost $4.7 billion. He announced it on May 6.

Simultaneously, Kyrgyz Prime Minister Akylbek Zhaparov announced that the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway would require approximately $8 billion.

Various sources plan to build a total of 18 stations, 81 large and medium-sized bridges, and 41 tunnels along the approximately three hundred-kilometer stretch of railway in Kyrgyzstan. Along the way, railway trains will cross earthquake-prone mountain ranges more than 3,000 meters above sea level. About 13,000 earthquakes occur in Kyrgyzstan every year, and over the past 150 years, the country has recorded more than ten strong earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0, aggravating the situation.

Apparently, this does not stop the project’s initiators. The Kyrgyz president is enthusiastic and confident that the road will be built in 3–4 years, although according to the National Railway Company of Kyrgyzstan, the project will take 6–8 years. Zhaparov also claims that the country will earn $200 million per year from the project. However, in order to earn them, Kyrgyzstan will have to compete with Russia and Kazakhstan, which are increasing the capacity of their routes—the Northern and Middle Corridors.

How Iran Defied the U.S. to Become an International Power

Sune Engel Rasmussen and Laurence Norman

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The winner of Iran’s presidential election will inherit domestic discord and an economy battered by sanctions, but also a strength: Tehran has more sway on the international stage than in decades.

Iran, under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s leadership, thwarted decades of U.S. pressure and emerged from years of isolation largely by aligning itself with Russia and China, giving up on integration with the West and throwing in its lot with two major powers just as they amped up confrontation with Washington. Iran’s economy remains battered by U.S. sanctions, but oil sales to China and weapons deals with Russia have offered financial and diplomatic lifelines.

It also effectively exploited decades of U.S. mistakes in the Middle East and big swings in White House policy toward the region between one administration and the next.

Today, Tehran poses a greater threat to American allies and interests in the Middle East than at any point since the Islamic Republic was founded in 1979.

Zelenskyy Says More Air Defenses Needed Against ‘Russian Terror’ As Vilnyansk Casualty Toll Tops 40

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Ukraine’s State Emergency Service on June 30 raised the number of injured to more than 35 in an apparent Russian rocket attack the previous night that killed seven people in the city of Vilnyansk, in the southern Zaporizhzhya region.

It reported that building and car fires had been put out at the scene, where Governor Ivan Fedorov said three children were believed to be among the dead and nine more children among the dozens of injured.

Initial reports had put the number of injured at around 10.

“How can we be expected to live?” a resident of Vilnyansk said in comments to RFE/RL.

“There is a burned corpse there,” she said, pointing to rescue workers wrapping the body of a blast victim.

“This is a very popular area. There is an ATB [supermarket]. There are benches. People are walking. Children are walking. Some people were driving by from work. They just disappeared [in the blast] and we cannot find them.”

Europe planning 1,500-MILE defence line protecting Poland & Baltics from Putin’s WW3 invasion threat

Georgie English

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Poland and the Baltics are planning to create the £2.2billion blockade to keep Russia from advancing through the continent as the threat of WW3 looms.

The brave allied nations revealed the plans on Wednesday as they asked the European Union for help with the project.

Leaders from Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia all claim a protective blockade is essential to protect Europe from a dangerous Moscow.

Putin has been ramping up his military threats among other worrying activities as he repeatedly tells the West to avoid getting involved in his war in Ukraine.

The leaders of the four countries who put together the plan described the need for extra protection as "dire and urgent".

They added all 27 EU states will be protected by the bloc including over 450 million people.

The Army’s New M10 Booker: Deploy Fast And Carry A Big Gun

TYLER ROGOWAY

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The M10 Booker aims to revolutionize how U.S. Army light infantry units fight. It will have the ability to deploy rapidly aboard C-17 cargo jets right alongside the troops it was designed to support. Unlike the far heavier and slower to deploy M1 Abrams, the M10 will be an asset organic to light infantry units, regularly training alongside these agile forces. And while the Abrams excels in taking on other main battle tanks along the forward edge of a fight, the M10 is about taking out armored personnel carriers and other combat vehicles, as well as bunkers and fortifications, on demand for forward-operating light infantry.

Just don’t call it a light tank to the Army though, even though that is pretty much what it is.

Dive into the capabilities of the M10 Booker and its fascinating roots, as well as some of the questions surrounding its relevance, in our latest video feature. You can also check out our past feature on the M10 Booker and what it’s all about here.

Satellite Data Suggests Russia May Be Running Out of Tanks

Isabel van Brugen

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Russia has sustained high losses of tanks since President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine more than two years ago, and may have just a few thousand of the armored fighting vehicles left, artificial intelligence (AI) analysis of satellite imagery suggests.

German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ) trained an AI model to examine satellite imagery of 87 Russian military sites—including 16 bases where tanks, artillery vehicles and armored personnel carriers are stored.

The AI model counted the number of tanks at these key sites prior to the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, up until the present day, to determine the scale of the country's tank losses in the war.

One of these bases, the 111th Central Tank Reserve Base of the Army in southeastern Russia, which housed 857 tanks in April 2021, is now nearly empty, satellite imagery suggests. Just months into the war, in October 2022, Russia had lost nearly half of these tanks, the newspaper found. Analysis of other military sites painted a similar picture, SZ said.

Russia Is Not Bluffing

Benjamin Giltner

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As the war in Ukraine continues into its third year of fighting, all parties appear more willing to escalate than to bring it to an end. In his annual “State of the Nation” address, President Vladimir Putin warned NATO nations that they “must, in the end, understand all this truly threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons, and therefore the destruction of civilization,” if they continue to arm Ukraine and consider sending troops. Even as far back as June 2022, Putin warned U.S. officials against sending long-range missiles to Ukraine, stating, “We will strike at those targets which we have not yet been hitting.”

However, American policymakers and analysts seem to think that Putin won’t put his money where his mouth is when it comes to escalation. Adam Kinzinger and Ben Hodges assured readers that Putin is bluffing with his threats of nuclear escalation. NATO’s Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, dismissed the likelihood of Western aid to Ukraine leading to Russian retaliation. The Biden administration seems to agree, having recently allowed Ukraine to use U.S. weapons to strike inside Russian territory—a red line the administration previously refused to cross.

In this view, escalation is calculable, and countries tend to bluff with their red lines. This assumption is false. As the famed military and nuclear strategist Bernard Brodie explained, countries usually do not usually bluff when they make threats. In fact, there are multiple cases throughout history that show how this misunderstanding of escalation has led to disastrous results.

Navigating Uncertainty: The Intersection of Global Politics, Tech, and Economics

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THE BIG PICTURE

International Political Landscape

Significant tensions and strategic maneuvers mark the international political landscape. "Putin Vows to Make New Nuclear Missiles and Weigh Putting Them Near NATO Nations" by David E. Sanger and Anton Troianovski, published by The New York Times, reports on President Vladimir Putin's declaration to produce new intermediate-range nuclear missiles and hints at deploying them within range of NATO nations. This move, amidst rising tensions with the West, aims to exert pressure and signals a strategic shift in nuclear arms control. Additionally, "How the World Reacted to Biden’s ‘Disastrous’ Debate Performance" by Michael Birnbaum, published by The Washington Post, highlights global concerns following President Joe Biden's faltering debate performance, prompting U.S. rivals to recalibrate their strategies in anticipation of a potential second Trump presidency. This article underscores the significant impact of U.S. domestic politics on international perceptions and diplomatic maneuvers.

Technological Innovations

Technological innovations continue to reshape industries and defense strategies. "NATO Boosts Undersea Cable Infrastructure Fearing Russian Sabotage" by Jack Detsch and Keith Johnson, published by Foreign Policy, discusses NATO's efforts to protect undersea communication and energy cables amid fears of Russian sabotage. This initiative highlights the strategic importance of securing global communication networks against potential disruptions. Meanwhile, “How AI Might Affect Decision-making in a National Security Crisis," by Christopher S. Chivvis and Jennifer Kavanagh, published by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, explores the potential impacts of AI on national security decision-making processes. The article discusses how AI could both expedite and complicate decision-making, influence groupthink and alter the dynamics of bureaucratic politics. It emphasizes the need for clear AI governance and extensive risk mitigation training.

America’s priority should be chip design leadership- OPINION

HENRY KRESSEL

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Chips are the key economic and military enablers of the industrial world. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol recently described chip technology leadership as paramount to a country’s economic survival (Wall Street Journal, June 5, 2024). The impact on military matters is overwhelming. As David Goldman and I wrote in the the Wall Street Journal on December 23, 2018: “Silicon, not Steel, will win the Next War.”

In that spirit, hundreds of billions of dollars are being allocated from national funds to develop the industry in countries including China, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and the US. In the US, the CHIPS Act allocated $50 billion to support manufacturing investments. These large amounts committed must be viewed in the context of the cost of a state-of-the-art, full-scale factory – between $20 billion and $30 billion. And such plants become obsolete in a few years. Staying at the cutting edge of chip manufacturing technology is a major national undertaking.

As the original developer of the industry, the US is facing major new competition. The first priority in the US should be to maintain leadership in innovative product design because that leadership impacts economic growth and the US still leads the world in this regard.

Russia wants to confront NATO but dares not fight it on the battlefield – so it’s waging a hybrid war instead

Ivana Kottasová,

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When someone tried – and failed – to burn down a bus garage in Prague earlier this month, the unsuccessful arson attack didn’t draw much attention. Until, that is, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala revealed it was “very likely” that Moscow was behind it.

The accusation prompted alarm among security officials and governments because several similar incidents have occurred across Europe in recent months. The Museum of Occupation in Riga was targeted in an arson attack in February. A London warehouse burnt down in March and a shopping center in Warsaw went up in flames in May. Police in Germany arrested several people suspected of planning explosions and arson attacks in April, and French authorities launched an anti-terror investigation after detaining a suspected bomb-maker who was injured in a botched explosion earlier this month.

Multiple hacking attacks and spying incidents have been reported in different European countries. As the same time, the European Union has accused Russia and Belarus of weaponizing migration by pushing asylum seekers from third countries to its borders. There have also been several suspicious attacks against individuals: a Russian defector was found shot dead in Spain and an opposition figure exiled in Lithuania was brutally attacked with a hammer.

Israel's Two Front War

LAWRENCE FREEDMAN

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We tend to look for explanations for decisions to go to war as stemming from a rational cost/benefit analysis, a calculation that the gains from the resort to armed force can be set against the costs of the fighting. As war always comes with high costs then it can only be justified if there is some confidence in the likely gains. When it comes to a defensive war the issue is whether the costs prevented will be greater than those incurred.

Yet even those trying to take these decisions as rationally as possible will face great uncertainties when trying to assess how a war will turn out. They might hope that when it is over a dispute will be resolved, land will have been grabbed, people better protected, long-term security ensured. But they often cannot be sure, and doubts may then hold them back.

Sometimes, however, the doubts, even if well-founded, have little influence. States go to war even when they know that the odds are against them. They do so in a mood of defiance or perhaps of fatalism. They are caught in a historic moment that leaves little choice. They have a sense of a conflict so deep, such a Manichean struggle between good and evil, that a final reckoning is bound to come so that even a promised path to peace still ends up with war. There can be no concessions for the sake of peace, for there is no true peace to be had. Every conciliatory gesture risks emboldening the enemy just as every truce provides them with an opportunity to regroup. The only choice is to accept the inevitable and then hope that through will and skill they can defy the odds.

The Unholy Alliance: Fossil Fuels and War - Opinion

Svitlana Romanko

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In the global chessboard of energy, fossil fuels have long been powerful pieces, driving economies and, unfortunately, fuelling conflicts. Wars have long been fought over resources, but fossil fuels have become a primary driver of conflict in the modern era. This relationship has profound implications for international stability, economic security, and environmental sustainability. The ongoing war in Ukraine exemplifies in perfect clarity the dire consequences of fossil fuel dependency, serving as a wake-up call for the global community.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the world has witnessed a stark example of how fossil fuel revenues can finance war and aggression. Russia has earned an astounding €693 billion from fossil fuel exports since the war began. European Union countries alone have purchased more than €196 billion worth of these exports, directly fueling Russia’s war chest.

The revenue from fossil fuels has allowed Russia to sustain its military efforts, perpetuating immense human suffering and devastating Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. 50% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been destroyed due to Russian attacks, leading to electricity shortages in at least five regions since March 2024. The largest private energy company in Ukraine, DTEK, has reported an 85% loss of its coal-fired generation capacity and significant casualties among its staff. This destruction underscores the vulnerability of energy infrastructures in conflict zones and the severe humanitarian crises that can result.

The myth of negotiated peace

Lawrence Freedman

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Those that demand Ukraine and its Western supporters work out what concessions will be offered to Russia to cut a deal to end the war, often claim that this will have to be done at some point because “wars always end with a negotiation”. Despite its regular repetition, and however the Russo-Ukraine War concludes, this claim is simply not true. Not all wars end with negotiations.

Some end with surrenders, as was the case with both Germany and Japan in 1945; regime change, as with Italy in 1943; or cease-fires, which might require some negotiation but leave the underlying dispute unresolved, as with Korea in 1953. Even when there are negotiations intended to end a war, they often fail.

The idea that war is essentially transactional and that there is a deal always there to be struck (a view which seems to infuse Donald Trump’s approach to international conflict) ignores the high stakes for which they are fought, which become even higher when lives have been lost in their pursuit. Compromises are best found before the fighting starts. Once a war has begun, compromises become much harder to identify let alone agree and confirm in treaty form. This will require intense bargaining over specific language in the full knowledge that any ambiguity will later be exploited.

The US Wants to Integrate the Commercial Space Industry With Its Military to Prevent Cyber Attacks

SHARON LEMAC

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The US military recently launched a groundbreaking initiative to strengthen ties with the commercial space industry. The aim is to integrate commercial equipment into military space operations, including satellites and other hardware. This would enhance cybersecurity for military satellites.

As space becomes more important to the world’s critical infrastructure, the risk increases that hostile nation-states will deploy cyberattacks on important satellites and other space infrastructure. Targets would include not just spy satellites or military communications satellites, but commercial spacecraft too.

The US Department of Defense believes its new partnership, called Commercial Augmentation Space Reserve (CASR), would enhance US national security and the country’s competitive advantage in space. It would go some way beyond the relationship between government and private contractor that already exists.

In some cases, the commercial sector has advanced rapidly beyond government capabilities. This situation exists in numerous countries with a space capability and may apply in certain areas in the US too.

The Postwar Vision That Sees Gaza Sliced Into Security Zones

Rory Jones, Anat Peled and Dov Lieber

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As Israel prepares to wind down major military operations in Gaza, one question looms large: What happens next?

A plan that is gaining currency in the government and military envisions creating geographical “islands” or “bubbles” where Palestinians who are unconnected to Hamas can live in temporary shelter while the Israeli military mops up remaining insurgents.

Other members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party are backing another, security-focused plan that seeks to slice up Gaza with two corridors running across its width and a fortified perimeter that would allow Israel’s military to mount raids when it deems them necessary.

The ideas come from informal groups of retired army and intelligence officers, think tanks, academics and politicians, as well as internal discussions inside the military. While Israel’s political leadership has said almost nothing about how the Gaza Strip will look and be governed after the heaviest fighting ends, these groups have been working on detailed plans that offer a glimpse of how Israel is thinking about what it calls the Day After.

America falters in fighting the information war

Colin Demarest

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Americans are unknowingly being bombarded with media manipulated by China, Russia and Iran, despite U.S. efforts to stem the tide, according to an analysis first shared with Axios.

Why it matters: The messaging stokes stateside divisions and undermines support for some of Washington's most pressing security pursuits — Taiwan, Ukraine and Israel.

What's inside: The new report published by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, whose experts include former military members and senior government advisers, examines how authoritarian regimes have for years swayed thinking at home and abroad.

• China hopes to exhaust and subdue Taiwan, which it considers a renegade province. It also wants to deflect criticism as its neighborhood belligerence is captured on camera.
• Russia tries to bend international thinking in its favor. It is also exploiting domestic issues to pacify its people.
• Iran threatens dissidents, amplifies messaging from anti-American and anti-Israeli groups, and supports a constellation of proxies in the region.

MANUFACTURING DECEIT: HOW GENERATIVE AI SUPERCHARGES INFORMATION MANIPULATION

Amaris Rancy

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Authoritarian actors have long worked to undermine democracy at a global scale by manipulating the information space, but the recent emergence of faster, more expansive, and potentially more potent “generative AI” technologies is creating new risks. With more than fifty national elections around the globe taking place in 2024, the stakes this year are particularly high. Given these challenges, this report explores the following questions: how is generative AI helping authoritarians tip the scales against democracy and accelerate harmful narratives in a wide variety of country contexts? And how are civil society organizations using the same set of tools to push back?

He Helped Invent Generative AI. Now He Wants To Save It

STEVEN LEVY

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In 2016, Google engineer Illia Polosukhin had lunch with a colleague, Jacob Uszkoreit. Polosukhin had been frustrated by a lack of progress in his project, using AI to provide useful answers to questions posed by users, and Uszkoreit suggested he try a technique he had been brainstorming that he called self-attention. Thus began an 8-person collaboration that ultimately resulted in a 2017 paper called “Attention Is All You Need,” which introduced the concept of transformers as a way to supercharge artificial intelligence. It changed the world.

Eight years later, though, Polosukhin is not completely happy with the way things are shaking out. A big believer in open source, he’s concerned about the secretive nature of transformer-based large language models, even from companies founded on the basis of transparency. (Gee, who can that be?) We don’t know what they’re trained on or what the weights are, and outsiders certainly can’t tinker with them. One giant tech company, Meta, does tout its systems as open source, but Polosukhin doesn’t consider Meta’s models as truly open: “The parameters are open, but we don’t know what data went into the model, and data defines what bias might be there and what kinds of decisions are made,” he says.

As LLM technology improves, he worries it will get more dangerous, and that the need for profit will shape its evolution. “Companies say they need more money so they can train better models. Those models will actually be better at manipulating people, and you can tune them better for generating revenue,” he says.

Cryptographers Are Discovering New Rules for Quantum Encryption

BEN BRUBAKER

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Say you want to send a private message, cast a secret vote, or sign a document securely. If you do any of these tasks on a computer, you’re relying on encryption to keep your data safe. That encryption needs to withstand attacks from code breakers with their own computers, so modern encryption methods rely on assumptions about what mathematical problems are hard for computers to solve.

But as cryptographers laid the mathematical foundations for this approach to information security in the 1980s, a few researchers discovered that computational hardness wasn’t the only way to safeguard secrets. Quantum theory, originally developed to understand the physics of atoms, turned out to have deep connections to information and cryptography. Researchers found ways to base the security of a few specific cryptographic tasks directly on the laws of physics. But these tasks were strange outliers—for all others, there seemed to be no alternative to the classical computational approach.

By the end of the millennium, quantum cryptography researchers thought that was the end of the story. But in just the past few years, the field has undergone another seismic shift.

The Navy’s ongoing carrier conundrum

Diana Stancy

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After a grueling eight months leading the Navy’s effort to counter Iran-backed Houthi rebel attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, the aircraft carrier Dwight D. Eisenhower received a reprieve this month when it transited the Suez Canal and headed into the Mediterranean Sea, on its way back home to Norfolk.

During more than 200 days taking down a barrage of Houthi drones and missiles, the Ike became the latest East Coast-based carrier to see its deployment extended multiple times.

Dating back to 2021, carriers Harry S. Truman, George H.W. Bush, and most recently, the Gerald R. Ford, also encountered extended periods underway to fulfill American naval presence requirements amid pressing global events.

Altogether, these carriers spent roughly nine months at sea – up from the standard seven-month deployment schedule.

And while the Ike is now wrapping its deployment, another East Coast carrier isn’t ready to replace its presence in the region – prompting an already deployed West Coast carrier Navy to replace it.

TAPAS A Phoenix Rising Above Challenges: India’s Indigenous MALE Drone Takes Wings – Analysis

Girish Linganna

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The Indian Air Force (IAF) has put forward a proposal to the government to acquire 10 TAPAS drones. These drones are developed indigenously in India. According to defence officials, the plan is for the IAF to receive six of these drones, while the remaining four will be allocated to the Indian Navy. This move by the IAF represents a significant effort to bolster India’s indigenous capabilities when it comes to unmanned aerial vehicles for surveillance purposes.

By acquiring these TAPAS drones, the armed forces are showing their commitment to utilizing domestic defence technology to fulfil their operational requirements.

The armed forces’ decision to purchase TAPAS drones, even with some performance limitations, reflects commendable vision and a strong sense of duty. The IAF will take the lead in bringing in and acquiring TAPAS drones for the defence forces. The Defence Ministry is expected to review this plan soon. But, right now, only the IAF and the Indian Navy are planning to buy these drones.

Indigenously Developed Drones

Classified as medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) drones, the TAPAS drones have been indigenously developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO). They will be manufactured by a group of companies, including Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL).

Why Do India and China Keep Fighting Over This Desolate Terrain?

Yudhijit Bhattacharjee

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The 2,100-mile border separating India and China passes through some of the world’s most inhospitable terrain. In the west, it runs along India’s Ladakh region, at an altitude of 13,000 to 20,000 feet. During the months when the area isn’t covered in snow, the ground resembles a moonscape. The earth is sandy, strewn with rocks and pebbles; not a blade of grass grows anywhere; there are no visible signs of animal life. In winter, temperatures can drop to –40 degrees. The bleak conditions and barren vistas can induce despair in those who set foot on the land. “I’ve been to those places,” a former Indian diplomat who now works for an international Buddhist organization in Delhi told me. “When you visit, you tend to think, Who the hell even wants this area?”

But that’s not how nation-states view territory, no matter how desolate it is. That is why India and China have their armies deployed on these heights along an unmarked and, in many places, contested boundary between the two countries. In the absence of any fencing or barbed wire to demarcate territory, soldiers from each nation contend with considerable ambiguity when conducting patrols along what’s known as the Line of Actual Control. Vinod Bhatia, who served as director general of military operations for the Indian Army and is now retired, describes it as a line of perceptions.

“It’s four lines, actually,” he told me when I visited Delhi last year. “One is the Indian perception of the Line of Actual Control. Another is the Chinese perception of the Line of Actual Control. Third is the Indian perception of the Chinese perception of the Line of Actual Control — because we have a perception based on their line of patrolling. And the fourth is, of course, the Chinese perception of the Indian perception of the Line of Actual Control.”

Why Is China Stockpiling Key Resources?

Bonnie Girard

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Is China getting ready to invade Taiwan?

This is one of the questions that prompted a hearing this month by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a government-funded organization that follows the relationship between the United States and China. In this month’s hearing, commissioners of the USCC heard that China is stockpiling minerals and other key resources in what could be a precursor to war, specifically an attempted invasion and takeover of Taiwan.

“The Chinese central government stockpiling minerals is one potential indicator that it may be preparing to invade Taiwan,” ​Gregory Wischer of Dei Gratia Minerals told the Commission in a prepared statement.

Wischer went on to say that China’s stockpile, managed by China’s National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration, is in charge of managing the “large volumes of minerals like aluminum, cobalt, and copper” that China is amassing, presumably “for strategic reasons.”

Stockpiling is a measure to not only overcome production shortages of various resources, but to also bypass troubles with sourcing and purchasing those resources should a nation fall into international disfavor, as China certainly would with much of the world should they attempt a military takeover of Taiwan.

Forgotten Wars: The Civil War in Myanmar

Matteo Balzarini Zane

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After the Myanmar army (Tatmadaw) overthrew the government of Aung San Suu Kyi in a coup on February 1, 2021, the country was plunged into chaos and violence. Peaceful protests against the government were violently suppressed, resulting in thousands of arrests and hundreds of civilian deaths. Minority militias have been fighting for partial or full independence from the central government for decades, increasing the resistance of the army and making internal conflicts more comfortable.

The United Nations and various human rights organizations have repeatedly reported human rights violations by the military, including executions, torture, and indiscriminate attacks on the population. The Security Council passed several resolutions condemning this, but direct sanctions were hampered by the joint veto power of Russia and China. The two superpowers have strategic and economic interests in the region and are therefore reluctant to support policies that could jeopardize their relations with Myanmar and the Tatmadaw (which supplies arms to Moscow).

Rebel groups under the protection of the Federal Government and the People's Defense Forces have stepped up resistance in recent months, but they are seeking greater control, with the military still controlling major cities and key construction sites. The harsh countryside and mountains have deep ethnic groups.

4 Ways China Gets Around US AI Chip Restrictions

Che-Jen Wang

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The recently concluded Computex 2024 in Taipei gathered the world’s most renowned computer manufacturers, and invited an unprecedentedly large number of CEOs of chip manufacturers to be its keynote speakers. The themes of the exhibition were artificial intelligence (AI), green energy sustainability, and innovation, with particular emphasis on the arrival of the 3 nm process era in AI. The 3 nm GPU products introduced at the keynote include Nvidia’s Rubin platform, Intel’s Lunar Lake, AMD’s MI350 series, and even ARM’s v9.2 architecture based on 3 nm.

In the AI field, the difference of computing power between 7 nm and 3 nm chips lies in the number of transistors. Comparing Nvidia’s 7 nm A100 with the company’s 4nm B200, the number of transistors increases significantly from 54.2 billion to 208 billion, nearly quadrupling. In terms of half-precision floating point (FP16) computation, the B200 delivers 2,250 TFLOPS, while the A100 delivers 312 TFLOPS, a more than seven-fold increase. Taking into account the performance of peripheral components and ecosystems, the actual computing power of the 3 nm chipset far surpasses the multiplier mentioned above.

The goals of the Biden administration’s technology policy – described as a “small yard, high fence” approach – are to impede, cripple, and delay China’s development of precisely this kind of advanced chip technology. By doing so, Washington seeks to halt China’s progress in AI and high-performance computing (HPC) capabilities and thereby buy time for the U.S. and its allies to expand their lead in cutting-edge technology. But so far, the measures have seen only limited success.

China Levels Graft Charges Against Former Defense Ministers

Chris Buckley

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China’s leadership accused two former defense ministers on Thursday of taking “huge” bribes and of other acts of corruption that compromised military promotions and the nation’s weapons production complex.

Two announcements from the Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, a council of 24 top officials, laid out multiple accusations of crime and insubordination against Gen. Li Shangfu, the defense minister for much of last year, and Gen. Wei Fenghe, the minister from 2018 to 2023. The statements suggested that more heads could roll in expanding investigations.

Speculation has built since last year that China’s leader, Xi Jinping, had begun inquiries into military corruption and misconduct, after senior officers from the People’s Liberation Army’s Rocket Force were abruptly replaced or had disappeared. General Li’s removal as defense minister in October, after he had vanished from public view for months, added weight to the rumors. But only now has China’s leadership revealed the range of allegations involved in the investigations.

China ‘Actively’ Working to Disrupt U.S. Defense Industry

Greg Hadley

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China and other adversaries are actively seeking to disrupt the U.S. defense industrial base, the head of U.S. Cyber Command warned June 25.

Air Force Gen. Timothy D. Haugh said the People’s Republic of China is “engaging thousands of intelligence, military, and commercial personnel” to steal U.S. intellectual property and disrupt defense firms business processes. Speaking at the 2024 AFCEA TechNet Cyber conference, Haugh cited Volt Typhoon, a Chinese hacking enterprise, for moves to infiltrate critical industries.

The Department of Defense released its first-ever National Defense Industrial Strategy in January, and followed up with a Defense Industrial Base Cybersecurity Strategy in March. That strategy noted that China is “conducting a focused campaign to undermine the nation’s operational effectiveness and obtain information on sensitive DIB acquisition programs in technology.”

China has long sought to harvest U.S. defense companies’ expertise. In 2019, then-Defense Secretary Mark Esper accused China of “perpetrating the greatest intellectual property theft in human histor,” while other experts have long suggested that the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s premier J-20 fighter jet incorporates numerous stolen design secrets.

Cognitive Combat

Bradley Bowman

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Introduction

China, Russia, and Iran are waging an information war against the United States, yet many Americans do not realize they are under attack. Nor do they appreciate that developments on the battlefield of ideas and beliefs can have a decisive impact on the security and way of life Americans enjoy. This lack of awareness is ideal for Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran — predators like nothing better than hunting slumbering prey.

Americans may not realize they are already in an information war because adversaries attempt to conceal their activities. To make matters worse, Americans often think of international conflict consciously or subconsciously in the context of kinetic war — soldiers, ships, and aircraft battling one another on land, at sea, or in the air. So, when there is no overt conflict, Americans can be lulled into a false sense of security.

This propensity works to the advantage of China, Russia, and Iran, which view conflict with the United States more like a dial than a two-way switch.1 These adversaries turn the dial’s intensity up or down as needed, but hostile intentions toward the United States and attacks in the information domain remain constant regardless of whether a ‘shooting war’ is underway.

US needs NATO-Style Defense Against China Hackers: Cyber Expert

Hugh Cameron

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Cyber experts have called on the U.S. and its allies to protect themselves from China's hacking programme with a Nato-style collective approach.

Cyber espionage has become a central prong in China's foreign policy, with the scale and complexity of its offensive cybersecurity infrastructure astounding experts.

Blake Cahen, director of cybersecurity at IronNet, has warned that breaches are destined to continue unless countries and companies shore up their online defenses.

"Collective defence - like NATO - is the concept of sharing data so that a compromise or a threat against one member of the collective is not isolated.

The Only Five Paths China’s Economy Can Follow

Michael Pettis

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The first quarter GDP numbers that China’s National Bureau of Statistics released last week have renewed what was already an aggressive debate about whether or not China would be able to meet the 5.5 percent GDP growth target it set for itself this year. Two weeks ago, for example, for the second time in three months, the International Monetary Fund lowered its GDP growth forecast for the country to 4.4 percent from 4.8 percent in January 2022 and 5.6 percent last October. Given the serious headwinds the economy is facing, many analysts question whether China can achieve even this rate of growth.

But it’s a mistake to view China’s growth in terms of whether it can or cannot achieve a particular GDP target. China’s GDP growth is not a measure of the country’s economic output and performance in the same way the statistic is for other major economies. China’s GDP growth target is an input decided by Beijing at the beginning of the year. Its fulfillment depends on the extent to which the economic authorities are able and willing to use the country’s resources and debt capacity to achieve the required amount of economic activity.

Higher GDP growth for China, in other words, doesn’t mean a better economic outcome than lower GDP growth, as it does for most other economies. It just means that the authorities were more willing to employ resources for creating economic activity, whether or not that activity is productive or sustainable. System inputs cannot indicate anything about the performance of that system. Because GDP growth in China is such an input, it cannot be a measure of how well the economic system performs. Only an output measure can gauge its performance.

China Modernizes AWACS ‘Flying Radars’ To Counter US Military; Draws Critical Lessons From Ukraine Conflict

Shubhangi Palve

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In the shadow of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, a quiet revolution is taking place in China’s military aviation. The world’s second-largest defense spender is rapidly modernizing its “eyes in the sky” – the crucial Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft that serve as flying command centers in modern warfare.

For the past 28 months, the world has been closely observing the Russia-Ukraine war. This conflict has witnessed the deployment of numerous weapons systems, including drones, missiles, and the Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS).

According to experts, Chinese strategists remain highly interested in the performance of AWACS, in addition to all other weapons systems.

In a recent development, the Chinese social media platform ‘Weibo’ buzzed with sightings of a new variant of the Kongjing-500N long-range radar detection and control aircraft. Spotted among the Northern Fleet of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy, this aircraft is rumored to be the Kunjing-700.

Open-source intelligence (OSINT) images reveal that the new Kongjing-500N features a light bulb-shaped addition to the nose and a new radar system on the underside, similar to the one on China’s Yungan-9 (Shaanxi Y-9) reconnaissance plane.

This revelation follows reports from November 2022 suggesting China is developing next-generation “strategic airborne early warning” aircraft amid escalating tensions with Taiwan, the United States, and regional U.S. allies.

Initially met with skepticism by military experts, these ambitions now seem increasingly plausible. The Kunjing-700 may well be a fruit of these efforts, especially significant given U.S.-imposed obstacles in acquiring foreign radar and AWACS technologies.

An Israel-Hezbollah War Would Devour the Middle East

Alexander Langlois

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After nine months of brutal fighting in Gaza, Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah appear poised to escalate ongoing hostilities into a broader war. Indeed, both sides are saber-rattling as Israel finalizes heavy operations in Gaza to shift focus to the Lebanon front, with Israel particularly committed to ensuring an enduring defeat of its northern foe. This reality should terrify world leaders who must publicly reject any potential conflict, given the potential for mass displacement on par with the 2015–16 refugee crisis.

Lebanon and Hezbollah have exchanged cross-border fire since October 8—one day after Hamas attacked Israel. Both parties have increased their fiery rhetoric and actions since, expanding the scope and scale of their military operations, targeting increasingly important figures and locations while promising a broader bloody war. Critically, the situation appears to fall outside the normal deterrence structure established after the 2006 war between the two parties.

Israeli leaders are not holding back in public statements, with Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant repeating prior threats that his country will send Lebanon “back to the stone age” on June 27. This and similar rhetoric from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu highlight Israel’s willingness to invade Lebanon.

The Arab-Israeli Conflict and Asymmetric Warfare

Hilal Khashan

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Arabs and Israelis fought conventional wars in 1948, 1956 and 1967. The Six-Day War convinced Arabs that their militaries were no match for Israel’s technologically superior forces. Even before that conflict, the United States and the Soviet Union knew that Israel had a military edge over Arab states. Aware of his army’s weaknesses that led to its poor performance against Yemeni royalists in 1962-67, Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser admitted that he had no plans to start a war against Israel. Realizing that they could not count on Arabs to end their forced displacement, the Fatah Movement decided to wage an asymmetric war against Israel as early as 1965.

Asymmetric wars apply to internal conflicts, motivated mainly by ideology or the rejection of a colonial power without ideological attachment to its colonies. This essay argues that all Arab entities that have waged asymmetric warfare against Israel have been unsuccessful and that its further use does not bode well for Arab armies and guerrilla movements in their wars with Israel. The Israelis do not see themselves as an occupation force, and waging war against them, whether conventional or asymmetric, would not cause them to concede.

Asymmetric Warfare Explained

Chinese military general Sun Tzu constructed the asymmetric warfare concept two and a half millennia ago. He understood it as the ability to take on an adversary when it cannot defend itself or counterattack. Mao Zedong gave the term contemporary meaning during his stay in the north-central Chinese city of Yanan in 1937-47. His war strategy centered on using the weak to defeat the strong. The conditions specific to China that led to the defeat of the nationalists (mainly rampant corruption, hyperinflation and the loss of popular support for the movement) and the triumph of the communists do not apply to the Middle East’s asymmetric wars. Later, Cuban revolutionary leader Ernesto “Che” Guevara described guerrilla warfare as the preliminary stage of an armed conflict that does not lead to complete victory unless the insurgents develop into a regular army.

Iran Demands US and Israel Exit Syria as Bigger War Brews

Tom O'Connor

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Iran's most senior diplomat at the United Nations has issued a fresh call for the total exit of U.S. and Israeli forces from Syria as conflict continued to rage on several fronts across the Middle East, setting the stage for a potential broader regional war.

The statement was issued Tuesday at the Security Council by Iranian Permanent Representative Amir Saeid Iravani and shared with Newsweek by the Iranian Mission to the U.N.

"The Syrian people continue to suffer from humanitarian crises, aggression, foreign occupation, and terrorism," Iravani said. "Through unlawful occupation, inhumane sanctions, politicizing the return of refugees and IDPs, and preventing international support for Syria's reconstruction, certain Western countries are responsible for the prolongation of the conflict as they attempt to impose their own will on the Syrian people."

Iravani singled out the United States, which cut ties with the Iran and Russia-backed Syrian government and instead largely supports a Kurdish-led militia known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) that controls much of the country's northeast.

"Any separatist agendas and illegitimate self-rule initiatives must be rejected and all foreign forces whose presence is illegal in the territory of Syria by the Syrian Government must withdraw from Syria," Iravani said. "In this context, the full, immediate, and unconditional withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria is essential for the peace and stability of Syria."

He also called out Israel over its "continued aggressions against Syria's sovereignty, targeting civilians and vital infrastructure" as well as its "unlawful" occupation of the southwestern Golan Heights, seized during the 1967 Six-Day War and later annexed without international recognition.

Ukraine Military Situation: Russian Forces Maintain Offensive Combat Operations Along Multiple Fronts – Analysis

Can Kasapoğlui

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1. Battlefield Assessment

Russian forces maintained offensive combat operations along multiple axes. In eastern and northeastern Ukraine, Russian units assaulted areas near Bakhmut and in the outer rings of Kharkiv, and secured marginal advances in ground attacks around Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka. In southern Ukraine, the Kremlin’s forces scaled up offensive action around Kamianske in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Fierce battles raged on the Kharkiv axis, particularly near Vovchansk. Moscow continued to send inadequately equipped troops to their death in large numbers in northeastern Ukraine, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces are enveloping and isolating the invading servicemen. Several sources confirm that Ukrainian units trapped and captured hundreds of Russian soldiers attempting a river crossing near the PJSC Volchansky Chemical Plant.

Moscow has increased its use of glide bombs to advance its multifront push. This tactic has allowed Russian forces to conduct more expansive ground operations and accelerate the destruction and depopulation of critical urban combat zones, a long-standing Kremlin strategy since its wars in Chechnya in the 1990s. Last week Moscow targeted a three-story building in Kharkiv with a FAB-3000 glide bomb from a Sukhoi-34 fighter-bomber, the first documented employment of the munition in Ukraine. This giant weapon, which weighs over three tons, lacks the aerodynamics and precision of smaller smart munitions but has a massive kill radius that makes it a formidable asset.