Eugene Chausovsky
As Israel’s war in Gaza continues to rage, there has been no shortage of mixed signals recently over whether the conflict is on the verge of a major escalation or the cusp of a diplomatic breakthrough. From Israel’s offensive in Rafah to Iran’s direct attacks against Israel to shuttle diplomacy taking place throughout the Middle East, it appears that the conflict could veer in any direction at any time. Of course, this direction will be shaped not only by the Israelis and Palestinians but also by numerous external players that are involved in the conflict, including security patrons like the United States and Iran or diplomatic mediators like Egypt and Qatar.
However, there is another player who may not be as openly or directly involved in the conflict but has, in many ways, proven just as influential in shaping its trajectory: Saudi Arabia. Riyadh’s position has not only been a significant factor in the evolution of the Israel-Gaza war over the past year but also could serve as an important bellwether for the future direction of the conflict and its ripple effects throughout the region and globally.
A key backdrop for the Israel-Gaza war and the October 7 attacks that precipitated it is a diplomatic warming process that had long been taking place between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The two states had been exploring enhancing ties for much of the past decade, and this was accelerated by the U.S.-facilitated Abraham Accords of 2020, which saw Israel establish formal diplomatic relations with the UAE and Bahrain (and later Morocco and Sudan). Such agreements were motivated by a shared interest in forming a counterweight to regional rival Iran while also establishing greater trade linkages and economic integration between Israel and the Gulf states. While initiated under the Trump administration, the Biden administration sought to build on them with a particular eye on one of the leading players in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia.
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