Robert Rust
UCS published that speech along with a translation and an analysis showing that it contains no evidence suggesting that Xi thinks about nuclear weapons differently than his predecessors.
We have also obtained a book of Xi’s speeches on Chinese military affairs from 2017 to 2019, intended for internal circulation, and we will be publishing a series of blogs analyzing what Xi has to say about various military topics. The first of these blogs analyzes his language on Taiwan in speeches made on November 3rd, 2017 and December 22nd, 2017.
The status of the US-China-Taiwan triangle
As China’s military modernization rolls along toward the goal of building a “world-class” military by 2049, US officials increasingly believe that Chinese President Xi Jinping has a set timeline for a military operation. However, analysis of Xi’s speeches to his military shows no concrete timeline for an invasion, only exhortations for combat readiness and warnings about external interference in the cross-Strait status quo.
On May 20th, the Republic of China inaugurated its new president Lai Ching-te, ushering in the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) third consecutive presidential term. Storm clouds have been brewing over the Taiwan Strait since well before the January election. After then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022, China has conducted a series of military exercises around the island.
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