Gopal Nadadur
In May, Narendra Modi marked a decade as India’s prime minister. It is rare for politicians in democracies to surpass ten years in office. Voter familiarity or fatigue, along with other factors, has a way of dampening support and energizing rivals. Modi’s tenure is all the more remarkable, then, in that he remains popular, with 79 percent of Indian adults viewing him very or somewhat favorably, according to an August 2023 report by the Pew Research Center. With the world’s largest democratic exercise nearing its end on June 1—India boasts more than 950 million registered voters, six times larger than the United States’ electorate—Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is widely projected to earn enough support to remain in power for a third term.
The strength of India’s economy is one reason for the BJP’s favorable position in the polls. When Modi became prime minister in 2014, India had the tenth largest economy in the world. Today, it has the fifth. So what might the world expect from a “Modi 3.0” in terms of economic priorities if the elections pan out as expected? And would this political stability mean an end to policy uncertainty?
The administration appeared to be sprinting in the lead-up to March 16, when the election’s model code of conduct came into effect to discourage policy announcements that could influence voters before the contest. On March 10, the government signed a free trade agreement with the European Free Trade Association, and on March 15 it announced a new policy to open the Indian market to the world’s leading electric vehicle companies. It also approved three new semiconductor projects, revised prices for liquefied petroleum gas, and formalized rules to implement the Citizenship Amendment Act before the March 16 deadline.
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