Ashley J. Tellis & Tong Zhao
The recent expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal has been a striking feature of its progress toward great-power status. Even during the most intense periods of Cold War rivalry, Beijing maintained a small and remarkably vulnerable nuclear force that probably did not exceed 200 warheads. Although Chinese nuclear modernization continued after the Cold War ended, it has truly accelerated only over the last decade or so—with Beijing more than doubling the number of warheads deployed since 2020.
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