Was There a Scam in India’s Exit Poll Predictions?

Snigdhendu Bhattacharya

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Allegations of rigging opinion polls released before voting in elections have emerged from different parts of the world, as such polls may impact voter choices.

Manipulating exit polls is less heard of.

Exit poll results are released after voting in elections. They cannot influence voter opinion unless the election happens in phases and pollsters are allowed to publish early phase results before final phase polling. At the most, a rigged exit poll can demoralize opposition party workers before the counting process.

However, the Congress, India’s main opposition party, has alleged that rigging and/or insider trading involving exit polls in the recent Indian general elections led to the biggest stock market scam in its history.

Soon after the Indian parliamentary election results were out and even before the formation of the government, the Congress asked for a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) probe into the unexplained rise and steep fall in India’s stock market between May 31 and June 4.