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13 June 2024

Volodomyr Zelenskyy’s Hail Mary Pass in Manila

Manuel L. Quezon III

Embattled Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s surprise whirlwind visit to Manila on June 3 was the kind of thing any Filipino president would appreciate: A pit stop specifically meant to court Philippine support which telegraphs that the Philippines – and its president, essentially one and the same thing in the eyes of our presidents -- matters. For Zelenskyy, it gave him the opportunity to repeat his core message in Singapore: that the People’s Republic of China is in an out-and-out alliance with Russia, using its regional influence in support of Russian aims.

Those aims increasingly seem unachievable. As The New York Times put it yesterday, “Officially, Ukraine still talks about total victory, pushing Russia out of every inch of territory it seized since the February 2022 invasion … But in Washington, those rallying calls sound increasingly unrealistic. Russia appears to be regaining momentum.” Zelenskyy has spent the past two weeks publicly asking for support to pressure his American counterpart to relax restrictions on using United States-sourced arms against Russia. Over the weekend, President Joe Biden finally ordered a small and very partial relaxation of the restriction.

Thus, even as the stockpiles of the Western alliance dwindled, Russia rallied Iranian, North Korean, and Chinese support to beef up its own ramped-up armament production with increased exports of their own, with China steadfastly denying any involvement. Between Europe and America’s inability to ramp up production, Washington’s bickering over and, thus, delaying funding for support for Ukraine, Russia can now look forward to reaping the expensive rewards of a war of attrition it can afford, but which Ukraine can’t.

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