Hafed Al Ghwell
The U.S. has been engaged in Niger for nearly two decades, significantly ramping up its presence in 2013, when it established a drone base. There was a recognition of the strategic importance of Niger due to its location and the escalating threat of terrorism in the region at the height of the global War on Terror. These threats stem from a nexus of militant groups that have found a foothold across the Sahel, most prominently Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), and Boko Haram, among others. To date, these organizations spearhead a complex and adaptive insurgency, exploiting ungoverned spaces, inter-communal conflicts, and the persistent fragility of Sahelian states, whose security forces have often been overwhelmed by the militants’ operational tempo.
The scale of the groups’ operations has escalated over the years, with the number of violent events linked to these militant groups in the Sahel increasing fivefold since 2016. Their activities have had a devastating impact, displaced millions, and spawned new crises as far as southern Europe owing to a surge in migrant arrivals from North African shores. Furthermore, the violence perpetrated by these groups – including IED attacks, kidnappings, and targeted killings – has taken a grave toll on vulnerable civilian populations, directly challenging the counterterrorism efforts of a once Western-led global coalition that included the Sahelian states.
In Niger, US counterterrorism assistance has been critical in developing local force capabilities to confront these threats. However, the effectiveness of this assistance has been tested by the mutating threat landscape and by shifts in US strategic priorities. A recent coup wave followed by the swift arrival of Russian mercenaries created new complications, exacerbated by an equally fast-paced withdrawal of French and European forces from the area.
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