Hamid Enayat
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Reports indicate that the helicopter carrying Ebrahim Raisi, the missing Iranian president, became trapped in a cloud mass on a mountain. Despite the helicopter commander’s orders, who also led the squadron, to ascend to escape the cloud mass and avoid a potential collision with the mountain, he failed to rise and exit the clouds. Seconds later, the helicopter crashed.
The current situation of the Iranian regime strangely mirrors this incident. If Khamenei plans to replace Raisi with an internationally respected figure such as Ali Larijani, who presided over the parliament for three consecutive terms and whom Khamenei placed at his side during Raisi’s commemorative ceremony, it could solve his international problems. Indeed, it was the regime that, facing an uprising and to divert public attention, logistically, financially, and technically supported Hamas and triggered the Gaza war. Perhaps with Ali Larijani, he could complete the last stage of his nuclear program.
Otherwise, the regime might continue to purge itself to consolidate further and withstand the waves of popular uprisings. In this case, it will seek a Raisi-like figure to fully exercise its hegemony. This is the premise of any dictatorship.
The Structural Paradox of the Islamic Republic
The Supreme Leader in Iran is God’s representative on earth, and his will prevails over that of the people. However, the president, supposed to represent a party or a social class and, in theory, execute the will of the people, finds himself in each term faced with an unsolvable paradox with the Supreme Leader. No president has escaped the Supreme Leader’s disgrace, either by being sidelined like Rafsanjani or being under constant surveillance.
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