SETH J. FRANTZMAN
Eight months of war have provided Israel with a deeper understanding of the role of Iran in creating multi-front threats against Israel. Prior to October 7, it was widely believed that the real threat in the region was Iran and that Iran’s provision of weapons to Hezbollah was the main front that Israel should concentrate on. However, October 7 showed that Hamas could trigger a regional war by attacking Israel.
This means that it’s worth understanding now how Hamas continues to have its hand on the trigger. If there is a ceasefire in Gaza, for instance, there may be “quiet” in northern Israel. This means that Hamas’s actions may determine Hezbollah’s actions. Together, their actions are likely coordinated with Iran and also its other proxies such as the Houthis.
Any escalation in Gaza may therefore lead to escalation in the North. This is one of the main learning curves of this conflict. Israel did not plan for this eventuality. While Israel had planned for a multi-front war, it had not envisioned the Gaza front being the main one and Hezbollah being the stand-off front, where there is tit-for-tat rocket fire and airstrikes.
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