Sue Mi Terry
I recently spent a few weeks traveling between Seoul and Tokyo, participating in several conferences, including the Chosun Ilbo’s Asian Leadership Conference and the Nikkei Forum Future of Asia. My contributions in both Seoul and Tokyo focused on two key issues: the persistent negative news about North Korea and the increasingly positive developments in the United States-South Korea-Japan trilateral alliance. I address both issues in my recent Foreign Affairs article, “The Coming North Korean Crisis And How Washington Can Prevent It,” and in my new Washington Post article, “This nascent trilateral relationship is the best possible answer to China,” co-written with Max Boot.
On North Korea, much of the discussion at these forums revolved around the possibility of an October surprise by Kim Jong Un before the U.S. presidential election, North Korea's game plan, and Washington’s potential North Korea policy under a Trump administration (with most experts agreeing that a Biden second term would likely maintain the status quo). There were many questions about how our allies should respond.
Experts generally agree on North Korea’s strategy: perfecting its WMD capability with little intention of returning to denuclearization talks. Kim Jong Un has no incentive to negotiate with the United States, especially with his current level of support from China and Russia, allowing him to act with impunity. Even if Kim were inclined to make a deal under a Trump presidency, advancing North Korea’s nuclear program would be a logical step to increase his bargaining leverage, particularly after the humiliation at the Hanoi summit.
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