Rahul Roy-Chaudhury
On 9 June, Narendra Modi was sworn in as India’s prime minister for a third consecutive term, unprecedented in 62 years. A day later, the government’s top four ministers – for defence, home affairs, finance, and external affairs – and the powerful national-security advisor were reappointed to their posts, signalling stability and continuity from the previous government. Modi’s party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), holds 240 seats, a plurality in the lower house of parliament (Lok Sabha). The BJP is in power in 13 of India’s 29 provinces which possess legislative assemblies, with its allies ruling in an additional six provinces.
Yet the new Modi government is weaker than its predecessor, having failed unexpectedly to secure a majority in the Lok Sabha. The BJP lost 63 seats from its previous tally achieved in 2019 (303), falling 32 short of a majority (272 seats). With the support of its coalition partners, which provided an additional 53 seats, it was able to form a coalition government as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), but it now relies on the support of these partners to govern.
The BJP’s losses were primarily in Uttar Pradesh (29 seats), Maharashtra (14) and West Bengal (six), accounting for a total of 49 seats. These losses were likely the result of multiple local factors rather than any single national issue. The BJP’s loss in Uttar Pradesh in the north can be attributed to voters’ perceptions of the BJP’s arrogance, the party’s failure to address rising unemployment and inflation, and its anti-Muslim rhetoric (employed to seek the Hindu vote by polarising communities). The BJP’s defeat in the Faizabad constituency, home to the recently constructed temple to the Hindu god Ram in Ayodhya, which had long been the locus of sectarian tensions, showed this push-back. There was also concern among the low-caste Dalit voters about the BJP’s perceived intention to roll back affirmative-action policies if it secured a resounding victory.
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