Benjamin Tkach & Vasabjit Banerjee
Scholars and commentators have published numerous analyses of the 2023 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reports on defense expenditures and imports and exports for countries across the world. Overall, the top five weapons exporters remain the same: the United States, France, Russia, China, and Germany. However, the data showcases a subtle but important shift: Russia’s international share of arms exports is being challenged by France, China, and South Korea. In fact, Russia lost its status as the number two arms exporter for the first time in decades.
Cracks in Russia’s defense industrial base have emerged. Despite improvements in Russian munitions production and its outpacing of U.S. and European production by a three-to-one ratio, Russian production fails to meet demands. Russia’s increase in production, coupled with the delivery of tanks and armored vehicles, is simultaneously a testament to the mobilization of its industrial base and an indication of its weakness. A recent RUSI report shows that 80 percent of the tanks and armored fighting vehicles Russia delivered are just refurbished or modernized old equipment.
Production issues caused Russia to suspend its deliveries to India, which is historically Russia’s largest client by value. Despite a steady decline in Russian imports starting in the mid-2010s, India still relies heavily on Russian kits. Russia delayed the delivery of small arms for the Indian Army, the S400 Triomf Surface-to-Air Missile System, and two Krivak-V Class Missile Frigates to the Indian Navy. As similar reports on the inability to deliver arms emerge, such as Armenia’s 2023 claim that Russia failed to complete multiple contracts, it will only further undermine the perception of Russian industrial reliability.
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