EMILIO IASIELLO
The weaponization of cyberspace has been a legitimate concern as nation states aggressively build capabilities to project power, retaliate, and become more offensively minded. These needs not only in-house development, but they have helped spurn a global industry that supplies tools and technologies to interested buyers, giving even poorly resourced states an immediate capability in cyberspace. According to a Council of Foreign Relations tracker, between 2005-2023, 34 countries have been suspected of sponsoring cyber operations. While most of the incidents monitored consisted of cyber espionage activities, geopolitical issues have proven to be catalysts for more aggressive, disruptive, and destructive cyber attacks, whether from states or their proxies. The majority of the incidents tracked by CFR were linked to China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia, the think tank also included democratic-leaning countries like the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia into the mix as well. Regardless of the purpose or intent behind cyber operations, the point is evident: if a state possesses an offensive capability, it will leverage it to support its own objectives.
Therefore, the weaponization of cyberspace is more of a foregone conclusion than a worst-case scenario, and whose use is unlikely to be banned (as with chemical weapons) or its development limited (as with nuclear weapons). Perhaps no other technology exemplifies this than the quick adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) into cyber and traditional military operations, where it appears that governments are worried that this technology will be further enhance and bolster their capabilities at faster and more efficient rates. Indeed, recent reporting has warned that countries like China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia have been leveraging generative AI tools to include large language models into their cyber activities, according to a study by Microsoft and OpenAI. While it is unclear as to whether these governments are actively developing AI cyber tools, all indications are that this is the next evolution of cyber attack development, and one states will eagerly try to acquire to gain advantage over their adversaries.
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