7 June 2024

Sleepwalking toward WWIII in the South China Sea

BOB SAVIC

China’s announcement of its intention to enforce a law that would arrest foreign nationals venturing into waters it claims in the South China Sea (SCS) may be the trigger for a direct military confrontation with the United States. The regulation, known as the Administrative Law Enforcement Procedures for Coast Guard Agencies, will come into force on June 15, 2024.

Violent incidents between US ally, the Philippines, and China, have been ratcheting up in recent months. Dramatic film footage by Britain’s Sky News showed several large Chinese Coast Guard vessels pounding a smaller Philippine Coast Guard ship with powerful water cannons in disputed waters surrounding the Scarborough Shoal.

Shortly before, US President Joe Biden met with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Washington DC to discuss regional security. Biden affirmed “iron-clad” support for the Philippines under the auspices of their mutual defense treaty, including protection of coast guard vessels that come under armed attack in the South China Sea.

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