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18 June 2024

Rare-Earth Reserves In Central Asia Sparking Intense Geopolitical Competition – Analysis

Paul Goble

The seven countries of Central Asia—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, plus Afghanistan and Mongolia—have some of the largest but mostly untapped reserves of rare-earth minerals in the world. While this has long been known, three developments over the past several years have dramatically increased the importance of these reserves (Data.gov, October 29, 2023; Usgs.gov, accessed June 13).

First, the increasing role of rare earths in modern technology and their role in the clean energy transition have brought them to the center of international attention (The Diplomat, December 15, 2023; Golosameriki.com, January 24; International Energy Agency, accessed June 13). Second, China, long the major processor and supplier of rare earths for Western firms, decided to reduce or even cut off such supplies in the wake of Moscow’s expanded invasion of Ukraine and the Western sanctions that followed. That decision has forced the West to look for alternative sources, with a focus on Central Asia (Asia Times, March 15, 2023; ASIA-Plus, April 11). Third, the Central Asian countries themselves have seen the West’s involvement in this sector as key to their hopes of further reducing Russian control while preventing Beijing from replacing Moscow as the paramount power in the region (Euractiv, November 18, 2022; The Times of Central Asia, March 14).

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