SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI
There is a saying in Poland that, “No one will die for Gdansk.” No matter what kind of security guarantees Poland gets from Western countries, most Poles believe that we will still have to fend for ourselves. After all, when the Nazis invaded in 1939, Poland had security guarantees from Great Britain and France, yet neither country came to its aid (though they did formally declare war on the Third Reich).
Yes, according to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, an attack on one NATO member is an attack on all, and faith in this mutual-defense commitment remains strong in Poland. US presidents repeatedly vow to “defend every inch” of NATO territory. Yet in an age of hybrid warfare, the duties implied by Article 5 have become blurrier. Moreover, unlike Nazi Germany, the biggest threat to Europe today is armed to the teeth with nuclear weapons.
By constantly signaling that an escalation of the war in Ukraine is one of their greatest fears, US and German leaders have not exactly inspired confidence in the NATO security guarantee. How they would respond if Russia invaded Estonia, for example, is not clear – especially at a time when European armies and arms industries are so weak. Poland itself has sent more tanks to Ukraine than the United Kingdom has.
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