Zuzanna Gwadera & Timothy Wright
Tit-for-tat missile transfers In April 2024, Ukraine received a ‘significant number’ of a longer-range variant of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) as part of a new United States military aid package. Washington provided Kyiv with a shorter-range ATACMS variant in October 2023 known as the M39 Block I. This has a range of 165 kilometres, which is insufficient to strike targets across occupied Crimea. It also uses a cluster-munition warhead and as such is not suited for use against hardened targets.
The transfer of the unspecified longer-range variant represents a shift in US policy. The Biden administration was previously hesitant to provide Ukraine with longer-range missiles due to unease over the potential for escalation and because of stockpile concerns. Russia’s use of Hwasong-11A (KN-23) and/or Hwasong-11B (KN-24) SRBMs – two missiles supplied by North Korea that have a greater range than any ATACMS variant – seems to have influenced Washington’s decision. The US assesses Russia launched over 40 North Korean-produced missiles against Ukraine between December 2023 and May 2024.
Longer-range ATACMS variants include those equipped with unitary or cluster warheads and all have ranges of up to 300 km. It is unclear which ATACMS variant (or variants) has been transferred. However, the limited area effects visible in imagery of Ukraine’s 30 May strike on ferries in the Kerch Strait, which allegedly used ATACMS, suggests that the transfer might have included a unitary warhead variant. The US may have transferred some of its remaining units of older ATACMS while it replenishes its stockpiles with the newly produced M57 variant, which has reduced stockpile concerns.
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