Maldives Walking Tight Rope between India and China

Saroj Kumar Aryal and Alexander Droop

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Introduction

This statement still reflects the strategic importance that the Maldives have. Power politics in Indian Ocean Region was less complex when this report was written by the CIA in 1983, however, due to the rise of China and India the scenario is becoming more volatile. Since independence, India and Sri Lanka remained key players in the Maldives. The Maldives lie in India’s so called ‘Security Perimeter’, making India particularly uneasy if any other power increases their activities in the area. Beijing too realized the Maldives’ strategic importance as it expanded its involvement in the Indian Ocean starting in 2008. The Maldives’ geographic location is close to vital sea lanes significant for China’s energy supplies.

Given the competitive approach of India and China, the Maldives developed its own way of dealing with competition. Depending on the ruling government, the strategy is to pro- or against China and/or India— basically a ‘flip-flop strategy’. Some of the other states in South Asia such as Nepal and Sri Lanka too have adopted the ‘flip-flop strategy’ to deal with the increasing competition between China and India. This strategy has sometimes proven handy as it brings immediate benefits, however, in the long term it could impact the credibility of the country’s international image as well as create massive polarization in internal politics

The Maldives for some time has been debating how best to further its national security and economic goals in an area where geopolitical tensions between larger IndoPacific countries like China, India, and the United States are steadily increasing. The previous administration of the Maldives, which was headed by President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, unapologetically focused the nation’s foreign policy on India as a source of security and economic advantages.3 The primary opposition group, represented by the slogan ‘India Out’, has adopted a strong strategy to erode these connections or even eliminate India’s military presence in the Maldives, despite the fact that the previous government had aggressively worked to improve ties with New Delhi.