ROBERT A. MANNING
Surging tariff wars, a tripling of trade barriers since 2019.
A major power conflict in the heart of Europe aided vicariously by the U.S. and NATO.
Nascent coalitions — the U.S. and fellow democracies on one side, a Eurasian entente (China-Russia-Iran-North Korea) on the other. Both loose alignments incrementally harden into economic and security blocs.
It’s not the 1930s, but it’s starting to rhyme.
While not a perfect analogy to Ukraine, the Spanish Civil War (1936-39) was a prelude to World War II, with blocs taking sides. Fascist Germany and Italy backed the nationalist military revolt, while the Soviet Union backed the Republican government along with U.S. volunteers like Ernest Hemingway and the Abraham Lincoln Batallion.
And while deglobalization is not yet of the magnitude of the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariff act, the Biden administration’s recent wave of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and other goods is the latest sign that economic nationalism and protectionism around the world is surging. Trade restrictions have been growing exponentially since 2015.
No comments:
Post a Comment