William R. Rhodes and Stuart P.M. Mackintosh
Tensions between the United States and China continue to flare, even as Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and several other senior U.S. officials visit the country for talks. The two sides may disagree on most things, but maintaining dialogue is an essential part of geopolitics. The breakdown in communication last year, following visits to Taiwan by prominent American politicians and the U.S. downing of a Chinese spy balloon, was dangerous and destabilizing, because when adversaries do not engage, misperceptions – and the risk of a clash – mount.
But, midway through 2024, dialogue is proving unable to bridge deep divides. This major superpower conflict looks set to continue, and may even worsen, as positions on the war in Ukraine, national-security concerns, and trade tensions harden into a long-term standoff. Global institutions, forums, and solutions will be among the biggest losers in an ongoing U.S.-China decoupling, while regional alliances will increase in importance.
Some weakness was evident at the World Bank and International Monetary Fund spring meetings in Washington. The International Monetary and Financial Committee did not issue a communiqué, as it normally would, because China and its allies refused to include a reference to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. U.S. and European shareholders, for their part, wanted to recognize the war and its impact. The resulting silence was a victory for both Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
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