Khandakar Tahmid Rezwan & Scott N. Romaniuk
n January, the Myanmar National Truth and Justice Party/Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNTJP/MNDAA) captured Laukkaing in northern Shan State following the surrender of troops of the Tatmadaw (junta’s) Regional Operation Command. Myanmar’s northern regions have seen major retreats by the junta since October 2023. This area includes the Shan and Karenni (Kayha) states, which share a border with China; Rakhine and Chin states, which share borders with Bangladesh and India, respectively; and the Sagaing region, which is adjacent to India. For example, the Arakan Army (AA) has taken control of crucial military bases in Rakhine State (The Daily Star, December 12, 2023). Meanwhile, Karen forces currently control 80 percent of the country’s eastern region, while Chin forces control over 70 percent of Myanmar’s western state bordering India.
Emerging developments in the initial weeks of 2024 have introduced the possibility of unpredictable scenarios, such as humanitarian crises and a dangerous power vacuum that can enable insurgent factions to escalate fighting against the junta for territorial dominance. These developments will have consequences for neighboring countries and may very well pose challenges for the region and beyond.
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