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27 June 2024

Fear's defeat: Militant Islam and the challenges of deterrence - opinion

JOSEPH NICHOL

Deterrence was conceptualized during the Cold War as a strategic practice to regulate relations between nations. It is predicated on the idea that regimes undertake a deliberate analysis of costs and benefits, prioritizing their survival by avoiding actions that could lead to their annihilation.

This strategy has been crucial for global stability, evident in the Cold War’s nuclear standoff where mutually assured destruction (MAD) prevented direct US-Soviet conflict. The balance between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan has similarly prevented full-scale wars despite tensions.

But history is also replete with instances of states and other groups who chose violence despite immense – sometimes total – loss. One can think of the Jews at Masada, for example, who chose mass suicide, rather than submit to the Romans. Or the Japanese who, despite being at a steep strategic and military disadvantage, chose to attack Pearl Harbor, and then suffered the wrath of a nuclear-armed United States.

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