Mark Leonard
Although the European Parliament election has had very little impact in Brussels, the outcome will soon turn Europe upside down. Yes, fears of a hard-right takeover proved overblown. The election resulted in more of a gentle nudge to the right than a seismic shift. While far-right parties finished first in five countries and second in four others, the implications for the top EU leadership positions are limited.
The centre-right European People’s Party remains the biggest parliamentary faction. With 189 seats, it comfortably outnumbers the far-right Identity and Democracy group and the European Conservatives and Reformists, which have a combined total of 141 seats. Moreover, the centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats lost fewer seats than many expected, owing to strong showings by French, Italian, and Spanish social democrats.
The upshot is a parliament that doesn’t look too different from its predecessor. The three pro-European mainstream groups still hold a comfortable majority. Anyone hoping for a major upset in the distribution of the bloc’s top jobs – or a repeat of 2019’s drama, when European leaders pulled Ursula von der Leyen’s name out of a hat to be European Commission president – will probably end up disappointed.
Barring any major surprises, von der Leyen will keep her job, and the mainstream parties will come together to fill the other posts. Former Portuguese prime minister Antonio Costa and Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas look to be shoo-ins for the roles of European Council president and the European Union’s top diplomat, respectively.
Even if there is no real shake-up from the European Parliament election at the EU level, we have now gotten a glimpse of the political rot in some of the bloc’s most influential member states, most notably France and Germany.
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