19 June 2024

Could Population Crises Hurt Asian Military Powers?

Micah McCartney

Plummeting fertility rates in East Asia have raised questions about the region's military powers' ability to sustain their ranks in the coming years.

This has prompted China, Japan and South Korea to adjust recruitment standards, despite substantial funding and policy initiatives aimed at reversing the trend. But some experts argue technology will blunt the demographic shift.

East Asia has the lowest fertility rate globally, with China at 1.0, Japan at 1.2 and South Korea at 0.72 children per woman. Japan is also a "super aged" society, with China and South Korea hot on its heels.

South Korea, which mandates 18 months of military service for able-bodied men, maintains an active-duty force of about half a million soldiers. But considering its fertility rate, the world's lowest, some experts say this could pose a long-term problem. "The future is predetermined. Downsizing of the force will be inevitable," Choi Byung-ook, national security professor at Sangmyung University, told CNN in December.

Former South Korean President Moon Jae-in's administration reduced the mandatory military service period to 18 months, and recently there have been debates on potentially extending conscription to women.

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